Circuit Courts Face Political Flips if Senate Democrats Follow Through on Confirmation ‘Deal’
The stakes have never been higher for our courts. The judiciary is the cornerstone of our democracy, safeguarding equal justice under law for generations. Yet, in a stunning miscalculation, Leader Chuck Schumer has brokered a deal, sacrificing critical circuit court confirmations for the fleeting political optics of confirming a handful of district court judges.
This trade-off is not just short-sighted, but catastrophic. Four pending circuit court nominees — Ryan Park, Adeel Mangi, Karla Campbell, and Julia Lipez — represent not just individual seats but the potential to fortify the rule of law and protect our circuit courts from a seismic right-wing shift. Allowing these nominations to languish in exchange for district court confirmations can jeopardize decades of progress and hand the keys to our federal courts to a second Trump administration, eager to entrench a judiciary hostile to fundamental rights and weaponized against Trump’s perceived enemies.
28 Opportunities for Trump to Reshape the Courts
Twenty-eight Democratic-appointed circuit judges are eligible to take senior status during the next administration. Given Park and Campbell are nominated to seats with judges trying to take senior status now, that number jumps to 30 if they are not confirmed. The judges who were trying to create their vacancies would be either forced to continue active service or leave without Democratic-appointed successors. If even a fraction of them retire under Trump, six critical circuits (the Third, Fourth, Ninth, Tenth, D.C., and Federal) could flip from Democratic control — or split control — to Republican domination.
These are not abstract numbers; these are the courts that decide the fate of voting rights, reproductive freedom, climate action, and corporate accountability. Just a few retirements, combined with failure to confirm these pending nominees, could leave Democratic-appointed judges with control of just two out of 13 circuits — the First and Second Circuits.
At stake with these four nominees:
The Fourth Circuit: From Progressive Stronghold to Right-Wing Powerhouse
The Fourth Circuit, currently 9-6 Democratic, covers crucial states like Maryland, Virginia, and the Carolinas. Without Ryan Park’s confirmation, Trump could flip this court with just two retirements. Imagine Judge Nicole Berner’s vote on workers’ rights and gender equality rendered irrelevant by a right-wing majority.
The Third Circuit: Entrenching MAGA Control Over PA and NJ
The Third Circuit is already a razor-thin 7-6 Republican majority. With Adeel Mangi, the circuit would be split evenly between Democratic and Republican appointees. Without Adeel Mangi, the Republican margin not only solidifies but grows. A court governing Pennsylvania and New Jersey could soon have five Trump-appointed judges in its majority, raring to erase decades of progress on voting rights and corporate regulation.
The Sixth Circuit: Expanding Republican Dominance
The Sixth Circuit, which governs Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee, currently has a narrow 9-7 Republican edge. Without Karla Campbell’s confirmation, the risk of this margin becoming 10-6 or worse widens, as that would leave one more Democratic appointee on the Sixth Circuit who would be eligible to retire during the Trump administration, for a total of three. States in the Rust Belt — pivotal in presidential elections — could see critical legal protections gutted. This is especially true as Tennessee advances some of the most anti-LGBTQ+ legislation in the country, including the ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors being heard by the Supreme Court in December.
The First Circuit: Lifetime MAGA Presence
The First Circuit is home to just six active judgeships, with all five currently active judges appointed by Democrats. Without Judge Julia Lipez, this circuit not only flips a Democratic appointment immediately, but also will see its first Trump appointee since Senate Republicans ended the blue slip on circuit court nominees during the first administration. This future Trump judge would hold sway over Massachusetts, Maine, and Rhode Island on the smallest circuit court in the land, one that often sets the pace on important issues like workers’ rights.
A Moral and Political Imperative
Leader Schumer’s deal to trade circuit court confirmations for district court seats risks the bare minimum needed to hold the line against right-wing overreach. Circuit courts are where the vast majority of federal appeals are decided, often serving as the final arbiter on critical legal questions. Losing these confirmations opens the floodgates to a political ideology that has shown no restraint in dismantling fundamental rights, in favor of more Matthew Kacsmaryks and Aileen Cannons who will pursue far-right goals and erode any hope of equal justice under law.
This is not about protecting Democratic appointees — it’s about protecting the American people. Without these nominees, we risk a regressive Trump judiciary on reproductive freedom, climate change, and the fabric of democracy itself.
Call to Action for Senate Democrats
Time is short, and the consequences of exercising a false Sophie’s Choice on pending judicial nominees will reverberate for decades. Leader Schumer and every Senate Democrat must:
- Prioritize circuit court confirmations above all else. These courts shape the law for generations.
- Demand swift floor votes for Ryan Park, Adeel Mangi, Karla Campbell, and Julia Lipez.
- Reject any deals that pit district court confirmations against circuit courts. Both are essential, but circuit courts cannot be sacrificed.
A Legacy at Risk
The federal judiciary shapes the future of our country long after any presidential term or Senate session ends. Our country may be captained by the executive branch and crewed by the legislative branch, but our judiciary serves as the keel, steadying our boat in troubled waters. History will remember whether Senate Democrats rose to the challenge or allowed a right-wing tidal wave to wash away hard-won progress.
Confirming these four circuit court nominees is about nothing less than safeguarding our democracy. The time to act is NOW.
Vasu Abhiraman is the Helen Rosenthal Building the Bench Director at Alliance for Justice.